China’s leadership set for reshuffle at the upcoming 20th party congress amid huge uncertainties

China’s leadership is set for a reshuffle at the upcoming 20th national congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), starting on Oct 16. The seventh plenary session of the ruling party’s 19th CPC Central Committee began on Sunday at the Great Hall of People in Beijing and will make final arrangements for its twice-a-decade party congress where President Xi Jinping is expected to secure a third five-year term as party general secretary breaking the precedent of two terms and the retirement age. At present Mr. Xi holds three key positions: General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of China.

About 2300 delegates have gathered in Beijing for the crucial meeting where the key party positions and the Central Military Commission positions will be filled. The delegates will also approve a new list of members for the Central Committee, the party’s top leadership body made up of about 300 political elites. A day after the congress, at the first plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, those committee members will select the 25-member Politburo and its Standing Committee – the apex of Chinese politics, which currently has seven members. 

Experts said, this setup of power distribution is according to the present trend, however, looking at the current trend of breaking the precedents, a new leadership architecture cannot be ruled out given the opaqueness of the Chinese politics. It is yet uncertain what all titles Mr. Xi will carry or whether will there be a new title commensurate to his “status and authority in the party”. They added that the most important decisions are usually made ahead of the party congress, and the congress is largely a formal occasion to legitimize and communicate those decisions to delegates.

The composition of the new leadership would reflect the control Chinese President Xi Jinping, 69, and his ideology commands, who – experts say – has accumulated power unseen since Mao’s time as he removed the mandatory retirement age for him by constitutional amendment in 2018 and neutralized the opposing factions through his anti-corruption campaign under which millions of officials have been purged.

Appointments to central government positions, including the premier, vice-premiers, and ministers, will be finalized in March during the annual session of the National People’s Congress, the country’s top legislature. One of the most closely watched changes in the political reshuffle is the future of Premier Li Keqiang who has announced his retirement as Premier. Mr. Li has been in charge of mapping out China’s economic policies especially as Chinese economy has been facing serious challenges due to an inflexible zero-COVID policy stalling economic activities leading to a loss of confidence for foreign businesses in Chinese economy.