The American intelligence community has told lawmakers that it apprehends increased tension between India and Pakistan and India and China with the possibility of a conflict between them.
It also noted that under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to “perceived or real” provocations from Pakistan.
This evaluation on Wednesday forms part of the annual threat assessment of the US intelligence community that was submitted to the US Congress by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence during a Congressional hearing.
While India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points, relations will remain strained in the wake of the countries’ lethal clash in 2020, the most serious in decades, said the report.
The expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to US persons and interests and calls for US intervention. Previous standoffs have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has the potential to escalate swiftly, it said.
Relations between China and India have virtually frozen ever since the eastern Ladakh military standoff between the two countries in May 2020.
India has been maintaining that its ties with China cannot be normal unless there is peace in the border areas.
According to the report, the crises between India and Pakistan are of particular concern because of the risk of an escalatory cycle between two nuclear-armed states. New Delhi and Islamabad probably are inclined to reinforce the current calm in their relationship following both sides’ renewal of a ceasefire along the Line of Control in early 2021.
“However, Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant groups, and under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations. Each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints,” it said.
Relations between India and Pakistan have been strained over the Kashmir issue and cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan.
India has maintained that terrorism and talks cannot go together and Islamabad should provide a conducive atmosphere for the resumption of dialogue.