If the War continues uptil season sowing Climate time, it can prevent Ukrainians from planting wheat and sanctions imposed by the West may prevent Russia, the world’s largest exporter of wheat, from selling its produce.
Many Middle Eastern countries are seriously concerned about the inevitable shortage of grain as Russia and Ukraine together account for 30 per cent of global wheat exports. Russia in not only the world’s largest exporter of wheat, with Ukraine in fourth place, but the two countries together also account for 19 per cent of corn exports.
The war in Ukraine, if it continues for several weeks more, will also prevent Ukrainians from planting the wheat, while the sanctions imposed by the West will prevent Russia from selling its produce. As a result, the prices of grain will continue to rise steeply, causing sharp rises in the prices of bread, milk, meat, and other products.
According to data taken from the FAO’s 2020 balance sheet, Lebanon buys 81 per cent of its national wheat consumption from Ukraine and 15 per cent from Russia. Egypt buys 60 per cent of the wheat it consumes from Russia and 25 per cent from Ukraine. Turkey has a similar proportion: 66 per cent of wheat imports come from Russia and 10 per cent from Ukraine.
Several Middle East governments and especially those of Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, and Turkey will find it extremely difficult to pay for the increased prices of grain and may be forced to reduce or even abolish subsidies for bread, risking violent popular protests, which may topple some of them.
Many Middle Eastern countries are seriously concerned about the inevitable shortage of grain as Russia and Ukraine together account for 30 per cent of global wheat exports. Russia in not only the world’s largest exporter of wheat, with Ukraine in fourth place, but the two countries together also account for 19 per cent of corn exports.
The war in Ukraine, if it continues for several weeks more, will also prevent Ukrainians from planting the wheat, while the sanctions imposed by the West will prevent Russia from selling its produce. As a result, the prices of grain will continue to rise steeply, causing sharp rises in the prices of bread, milk, meat, and other products.
According to data taken from the FAO’s 2020 balance sheet, Lebanon buys 81 per cent of its national wheat consumption from Ukraine and 15 per cent from Russia. Egypt buys 60 per cent of the wheat it consumes from Russia and 25 per cent from Ukraine. Turkey has a similar proportion: 66 per cent of wheat imports come from Russia and 10 per cent from Ukraine.
Several Middle East governments and especially those of Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, and Turkey will find it extremely difficult to pay for the increased prices of grain and may be forced to reduce or even abolish subsidies for bread, risking violent popular protests, which may topple some of them.
Turkey’s economy has been faltering in the past three years, and the sharp devaluation of the Turkish lira has forced the majority of its estimated 81 million people to increase consumption of wheat-based products at the expense of the protein, increasing in this way the need for grain.
Moreover, the approximately 5 million refugees hosted in Turkey have bread as their main food. All this is coupled with the fact that Turkey is a major producer of pasta, flour, biscuits and semolina. Turkey is now a key player in the international wheat market, as its grain imports have increase to record levels.
In 2021, Turkey imported 64.6 percent of its wheat from Russia and 13.4 per cent from Ukraine.
Ankara would desperately need to find enough wheat to cover its needs. This year’s Ukrainian harvest may be considered lost due to the war and the closing of its Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports, while Russia will find it extremely difficult to export its grain, as major shipping giants including Switzerland-based MSC, Denmark’s Maersk and France’s CMA CGM have announced last Tuesday that they would halt cargo bookings to and from Russia until further notice.
Currently, the world grain markets are in a paralyzing state of uncertainty. Traders do not want to make deals that may be affected by the sanctions imposed on Russia and may find themselves in trouble either with the sanctions of the international community or their clients.
So, apart from the serious violation of international law and the big humanitarian crisis it created, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have serious repercussions also on the international grain markets and will affect millions of people who due to steep price rises may be forced to reduce the consumption of bread and thus may be close to famine, as in the case of Yemen.
In the end, everything will depend on how long this war will last. Russia could be able to maintain its grain production to the previous levels but would face great difficulties in exporting it, while Ukraine’s grain production will disappear from the international markets at least for several months.