The Indian Meteorological Department had predicted rains in several parts of Northeast India during the week. The prediction came in a forecast bulletin published at midday on Monday by the IMD. The states of Assam and Meghalaya are expected to receive rainfall at isolated places on November 16 and 19, fairly well-spread rains on November 17 and scattered rainfall on November 18. While the states of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura have been predicted to receive isolated rainfall on November 15 and 19, fairly well-spread rains on November 16 and 17 and allocated rains on November 18, Arunachal Pradesh is not expected to get rains during this spell.
An upper air cyclonic circulation formed over the South Andaman Sea and extending up to middle-tropospheric levels tilting southwestwards with height is the cause of the weather disturbance. Under the influence of this disturbance, a low-pressure area is expected to form over the Southeast Bay of Bengal and is expected to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over the West Central Bay of Bengal around 16th November. While another upper-air cyclonic circulation lies over the Southwest Bay of Bengal extending up to the middle-tropospheric levels, causing the change in weather.
Several other parts of the country have also been predicted to receive rain because of this weather system. Light to moderate rainfall at most places very likely over Andaman & Nicobar Island with chances of thunderstorms. Light to moderate rainfall at many places accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning & gusty winds likely over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Rayalaseema. Rains have also been predicted for Bengal and Odisha.