Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. Photo, Screengrab via Twitter.
The Wagner Rebellion. A Reality. Prigozhin-Kremlin Conflict.
Russian authorities have called for the arrest of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin amid claims of mutiny. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces said they were “watching” the situation unfold.Tensions between Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian military have escalated, though the Wagner Group leader has now halted his troops. Here are the key players in the conflict.
Yevgeny Prigozhin. The leader of the independent paramilitary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin was previously considered one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest confidants. The Wagner Group has been instrumental in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly in and around Bakhmut, not to mention in conflicts in Syria and across the African continent in recent years.But the close ties between Prigozhin and the Kremlin leadership have suffered in recent months:
The Wagner chief has long been in favour of installing a new Russian military leadership, which he has repeatedly criticised for defeats in Ukraine.
Tensions have been increasing since June 23, when Prigozhin accused the military leadership, in particular his archenemy, defence minister Sergei Shoigu, of lying to the Russian people about the true reasons for the war in February 2022. He also accused Russian troops of attacking the Wagner Group.
In a televised national address on June 24, Putin called the Wagner mercenaries “traitors” who would “inevitably be punished” – the final break between the Kremlin and Prigozhin.After a deal was struck late June 24, the investigation into Prigozhin by the FSB, Russia’s domestic intelligence agency, was called off, provided that the mercenary boss moves to Belarus.
According to the terms of the deal, Wagner’s soldiers also will not face retribution.Sergei ShoiguRussia’s defence minister since 2012, Sergei Shoigu has been among the main perpetrators of the military aggression against Ukraine since 2014 and, to an even greater extent, since the all-out war began on February 24, 2022. Shoigu stands accused of numerous war crimes.
Nominally, he is Putin’s most important man – though there are doubts about how much trust the former Kremlin darling still enjoys. While he could count the occupation of Crimea in 2014 and Russian involvement in Syria as successes, his reputation has declined since the war against Ukraine began.
The fact that Putin hoped the invasion would go much differently is considered an open secret.Shoigu’s relationship with Prigozhin is particularly strained. The head of the Wagner mercenary force has repeatedly accused the defence ministry of failing to deliver ammunition. Prigozhin has also said that Shoigu is pursuing personal goals and awards, such as a hero’s medal, while deceiving Putin about the situation in Ukraine.
These accusations culminated recently when Prigozhin said that Shoigu had lied to the Russian people about the real reason for the invasion.But the failure of Prigozhin’s rebellion is likely to strengthen Shoigu’s position again. The Russian military is loyal to its defence minister ― there were hardly any defectors that joined the Wagner troops. It remains to be seen how far this improves Shoigu’s currently strained relationship with Putin. For now, Putin is standing by his defence minister.
Valery Gerasimov , took over command of troops in Ukraine from Sergei Surovikin in January 2023. He is also responsible for organizing Russia’s military operation in Syria. Having assumed his post in 2012 after Shoigu was named defence minister, he may be considered a confidant of Shoigu, whom he serves as first deputy.Wagner chief Prigozhin’s anger is directed at both Shoigu and Gerasimov, who he accuses of incompetence, holding them primarily responsible for heavy losses during the invasion of Ukraine.
On Saturday, after claiming to have captured military facilities in the southern Russian city of Voronezh, Prigozhin threatened to march on Moscow unless Shoigu and Gerasimov joined his cause, and then followed through by moving north. But Prigozhin’s demands to dethrone or hand over both men were not successful. For now, Gerasimov is secure in his position.
Sergei Surovikin, Until now, deputy chief of General Staff for the Russian Armed Forces Sergei Surovikin was considered to be a Prigozhin ally. The general commanded the Russian forces in Ukraine from October 2022 to January 2023, before being demoted and replaced by Valery Gerasimov.
Since the conflict escalated, he has however apparently turned his back on the head of the Wagner Group, calling on Prigozhin in a Friday evening video message to end the power struggle.The enemy is just “waiting to see the exacerbation of our domestic political situation,” Surovikin said, calling for submission to Putin’s command.
Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu.
Wagner is basically a private mercenery army officially recognized as a Russian Government Company.
The Russian government appears to be disbanding the Wagner mercenary force.
The defence ministry says it will claim the group’s heavy weapons and military hardware.
The move follows a rebellion by Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, who marched on Moscow with an estimated 5,000 fighters, but stopped 200km short of the capital.
The Wagner group was first identified in 2014, when it started backing pro-Russian separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. It is thought to have helped Russia annex Crimea in the same year.
Wagner forces have also been active in Africa and the Middle East.
Before the war in Ukraine, Wagner was believed to have about 5,000 fighters – mostly veterans of Russia’s elite regiments and special forces.
However, its numbers have since grown considerably.
When announcing his “march for justice” on Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he commanded 25,000 troops.
Although mercenary forces are technically illegal in Russia, Wagner registered as a company in 2022.
The US said it would designate the group a “transnational criminal organisation” in January 2023.
What Wagner has done in Ukraine.
Wagner was heavily involved in the capture of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut for Russia.
Ukrainian troops say its fighters were sent into attacks in large numbers over open ground, which resulted in many deaths.
Yevgeny Prigozhin claims he founded Wagner in 2014. A wealthy businessman and convicted criminal, he is nicknamed “Putin’s chef” because he provided catering for the Kremlin.
A 2021 BBC investigation highlighted the suspected involvement of former Russian army officer Dmitri Utkin.
A veteran of Russia’s wars in Chechnya, he is thought to have been Wagner’s first field commander, and to have named the group after his former radio call sign.
Mr Prigozhin boosted Wagner’s numbers in 2022 by recruiting Russian prisoners.
About 80% of its troops in Ukraine came from there according to the US National Security Council.
Mr Prigozhin has repeatedly accused defence minister Sergei Shoigu and the head of armed forces in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov, of incompetence.
He also refused an order from the Russian defence ministry to sign a contract which would have put Wagner directly under its control.
On 23 June, Mr Prigozhin said top Russian defence officials had bombed Wagner troops in Ukraine.
A day later, his troops seized control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and began their march to Moscow, with the stated aim of removing the military leadership.
However, Mr Prigozhin stopped the advance after negotiations with the Kremlin, which were mediated by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
He agreed to go into exile in Belarus, along with Wagner troops which remain loyal to him.
Other personnel will be absorbed into the regular Russian army.
Criminal charges against those involved in the uprising have been dropped.
Since 2015, Wagner mercenaries have been in Syria, fighting alongside pro-government forces and guarding oilfields.
It also has troops in Libya, supporting the forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar.
The Central African Republic (CAR) uses Wagner to guard diamond mine. The group is also thought to protect gold mines in Sudan.
The government of Mali, in West Africa, uses the group against Islamic militant groups.
It is not yet clear who will now take command of these troops.
Russia paid Mr Prigozhin for providing Wagner troops to fight in Ukraine, says Dr Miron.
“He is one of several wealthy Russians who run private mercenary forces,” she says. “Even the defence minister owns a mercenary company.”
According to President Putin, Wagner was given 86.26bn roubles ($1bn) from the defence ministry and state budget between May 2022 and May 2023 to pay wages.
He said authorities would investigate how the money paid to Wagner was spent.
Mr Prigozhin has also made money from Wagner’s presence in other foreign countries, according to the US Treasury.
His companies are said to have profited from gold and diamond mines in the CAR and Sudan.
US authorities also say that an energy company linked to Mr Prigozhin was offered a 25% stake in all oil or gas fields in Syria which Wagner won back from Isis control.
