Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah speaks to his supporters through a screen, during a ceremony to commemorate the death of top commander Fuad Shukr, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike a week earlier, in Beirut, Lebanon, August 6, 2024. (Photo/Mustafa Jamalddine.)
Israeli officials increasingly believe it will be Hezbollah, rather than Iran, that will be first to launch a major attack on Israel in the coming days, according to media reports on Wednesday, while Tehran was reported to be possibly reconsidering its threatened large-scale onslaught.
Citing two sources familiar with intelligence on the matter, CNN reported that Hezbollah appears increasingly set to act against Israel “independent” of an expected Iranian response to the recent killings of the Lebanese terror group’s top military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
One of the sources said Hezbollah was moving at a faster clip than Iran in readying an attack, which it looks set to launch in the coming days. According to the US news network, multiple officials said Iran seems to still be hashing out its retaliation plans, with one US military official quoted as saying Tehran has already made some — but not all — of the expected preparations for a large-scale attack against Israel.
The second source said that unlike Iran, Hezbollah can likely initiate an attack with few to no warning signs, as Lebanon borders Israel. The source added that it’s unclear how or if the Islamic Republic and its Lebanese proxy are cooperating on a potential attack, and that some officials believe they may not be on the same page about how to proceed.
Meanwhile, an unsourced report by Channel 12 news said Israel has conveyed to both Hezbollah and Iran that any harm to civilians in Israel during their promised retaliation for the killing of top terror leaders will be a red line, which will lead to a disproportionate response.
The report said that Israel was readying for potential attempts to attack civilian infrastructure or Israeli-linked targets abroad, though there is currently no intelligence suggesting plots against specific locations overseas.
Meanwhile, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant took part in Home Front Command deliberations on Wednesday about when to issue an advance warning to Israeli citizens and update its public guidance, but did not reach a decision on a specific time due to concerns about exposing intelligence sources.
Defense sources have said that citizens will be looped in once Israel figures out an attack is underway.
Defense Minster Yoav Gallant speaks to reservists during a drill in northern Israel, August 7, 2024 (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry.)
On the Iranian side, US officials quoted by Politico late Wednesday echoed previous reports that Iran may be reconsidering launching a large-scale attack on Israel, following efforts from the Biden administration to work with Middle East allies to press Tehran to rethink its plans.
Iran has been warned that a multi-pronged attack on Israel could lead to a direct confrontation between the two countries, according to the report.
The officials also noted that Iran had been urged to recalibrate its response to the killing of Haniyeh given that it now seems likely he was killed in a covert operation with a bomb placed in his room in Tehran and not in a direct missile strike, as originally believed. Haniyeh was killed “in Iran by Iranians,” the former chief of staff and ex-war cabinet observer MK Gadi Eisenkot of the National Unity party said in a Channel 12 interview on Wednesday.
The officials quoted by Politico said that they believe Iran will nevertheless respond, but it may be more measured and not immediately.
A report by Iran International said President Masoud Pezeshkian had implored the country’s supreme leader to avoid a direct attack on Israel, warning that an escalation could lead Israel to devastate infrastructure and energy targets and cripple the economy.
The report, which cited anonymous sources with knowledge of the matter and which could not be independently confirmed, said Pezeshkian told Ali Khamenei that a war could deepen citizens’ discontent with the regime and even bring about Iran’s collapse.
The report said Khamenei was noncommittal at the meeting.
UK and Egypt ask airlines to avoid Iran and Lebanon.
Amid the growing anticipation of an attack, Britain and Egypt asked their airlines on Wednesday to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace over fears of a possible broader conflict in the region.
Britain’s advisory to its airlines to avoid Lebanon’s airspace came hours after Egypt instructed all of its airlines to avoid Iran’s airspace for three hours in the early morning on Thursday.
Many airlines globally are revising their schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace while also calling off flights to Israel and Lebanon.
Flights through conflict zones became a prominent industry safety issue a decade ago after Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board.
Egyptian airlines have already been avoiding Iran’s airspace. The new directive applies to all Egyptian carriers, including charter operators and other smaller airlines, said Mark Zee, founder of OPSGROUP – a membership-based organization that shares flight-risk information.
Egypt’s NOTAM, a safety notice provided to pilots, said the instruction would be in effect for three hours Thursday morning.
“All Egyptian carriers shall avoid overflying Tehran (Flight Information Region). No flight plan will be accepted overflying such territory,” the notice said, referring to the three-hour period specified.
Egypt’s civil aviation ministry later confirmed on Wednesday the notice was intended to reduce flight safety risks in light of a notification it received from Iranian authorities.
“Military exercises will be conducted over Iranian airspace on August 7 from 11:30 to 14:30 and from 4:30 to 7:30 on August 8 Tehran time,” the statement said.
The ministry’s press statement was issued after an unnamed source was quoted by the state-affiliated Al Qahera News TV as saying that Iranian authorities had said to avoid flying in the country’s airspace because of “military exercises.”
Iran’s Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani spoke with the Egyptian foreign minister by phone on Wednesday, according to the Iranian foreign ministry’s website.
In 2020, Iranian air defense units said they mistakenly shot down Ukrainian International Airlines flight PS752, killing all 176 people on board, shortly after it took off from Tehran airport. At the time, they were on heightened alert because of increased tensions with the United States.
On Sunday, Jordanian authorities asked all airlines landing at its airports to carry 45 minutes’ worth of extra fuel.
